As the bookies constantly improve their online soccer gamble prediction methods and try and avoid paying out, we can still find holes within their predictions. The question is how. There is absolutely no one million-dollar answer. On the other hand, you can find two ways that may make it possible for you to beat the bookies. One of the ways is to analyze non-measurable match information. A different way is to improve on statistical prediction models used by bookmakers.
The first method requires you to analyze data for example match type or priority, which is not utilized in statistical models. Among-the most prominent factors that could influence the outcome of a soccer match are:
Match type which is often an international/national league, a cup, or perhaps a friendly game. Especially profitable for you are the cup finals, where the media selects favorites and also the better informed punter can benefit from betting on the highly priced underdog teams.
Match priority. Each team must define its priority for the forthcoming matches, since team resources are restricted. European national cups are good examples for the top teams of low priority games.
Match time is essential, since soccer predictions are often inaccurate at the beginning and by the end of the season.
Players’ injuries, illnesses and transfers especially within the cases of key players. Bookmakers’ odds are often calculated before this information is accessible.
European Leagues – predictable and unpredictable. The Italian, Norwegian, French and Spanish leagues will be considered predictable. The unpredictable are the English and German leagues, especially at the beginning and also the end of the season.
Additional factors are pitch conditions, team managers, match attendance, weather conditions and, of course, pure chance.
To analyze all that information for every match could be a complicated and time-consuming task. The alternative is to use advanced statistical prediction methods, which constitute a marked improvement on bookies’ prediction models.
Why can their models be further improved? To begin with, when analyzing bookies’ predictions carefully, it really is easy to notice that their models are based upon average statistics. Low odds usually correspond to teams with high table positions and vice versa. It is clear that the precision of their models suffers when team skills change. Thus, by taking into account team skill dynamics, you may improve your profit by placing a bet on highly priced underdogs.
Second, the bookmakers’ models do not distinguish between the attacking and defensive strengths of soccer teams and do not remember the fact that soccer teams choose different strategies when playing at home or away. As soon as you learn how to distinguish between attacking and defensive strengths, you can simply forecast the total number of goals and beat the bookies at under/over bets.
Statistical models who were developed over the past couple of years explain historical match results with regard to changing skills and strategy. Bookmakers do not use such advanced models. Properly designed and optimized time-dependent models can predict as much as 70% of matches, outperforming the bookies’ predictions whose accuracy is much lower.
